Curse

Vann Borakul · Dec 14, 2007, 02:32 AM // 02:32

Someone who is very knowledgeable told me that there was a code that made there be less drops during the first minute or two you are in a zone. Is this true?

I have experimented with it and it seems to be true. I was just farming the raptors and I got many more bone drops than normal. A normal run can be done in 1 minute. I waited two minutes and then started and got double the loot both times I did this.

Has anyone else done research?

Antithesis · Dec 14, 2007, 09:04 AM // 09:04

Check out the SoJ vs SV thread. It seems to indicate that drops are pre-determined by a timestamp-based seed upon creation of an instance. Therefore regardless of the time spent idling in an instance, the drops for that instance should be the same. Besides, you could have made three runs in the time you waited and then ran, so loot over time should be factored in.

Some farmers swear black and blue that you get more drops killing one at a time vs aoe. Others reckon waiting a couple of minutes boosts drops. Yet more believe in the existence of anti-farming code. I suspect nobody but Anet really knows, BUT the research in that thread has been replicated and this appears to be the way it works - kill method doesn't matter, idle time doesn't matter, kill order doesn't matter, number of runs doesn't matter...drops are determined at the instance spawn so just get in there and hack away!

Guildmaster Cain · Dec 14, 2007, 01:20 PM // 13:20

'Someone very knowledgeble' seemed to have pulled ur leg...

SimonSez · Dec 14, 2007, 08:11 PM // 20:11

I can totally agree that u get more drops if u wait for like 2 min. I tried first the 1 min version. Got like 8 drops. And now recently I did it in 3-4 min, I didnt kill all of the nestling, but got like 14 drops.

ensoriki · Dec 14, 2007, 09:51 PM // 21:51

I swear anti farming code still exists.

So I'll have to dry this because im getting nothing from dam necro boss

Vann Borakul · Dec 14, 2007, 10:57 PM // 22:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antithesis

Check out the SoJ vs SV thread. It seems to indicate that drops are pre-determined by a timestamp-based seed upon creation of an instance. Therefore regardless of the time spent idling in an instance, the drops for that instance should be the same.

Regardless, there could still easily be a code that suppresses the amount of drops in the first one or two minutes.

Antithesis · Dec 15, 2007, 12:18 AM // 00:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vann Borakul

Regardless, there could still easily be a code that suppresses the amount of drops in the first one or two minutes.

My guess is it's all a lot simpler than people speculate it to be.

In that SoJ vs SV thread, two guys farmed the same instance timestamp via different routes, hitting specific mobs at different times (sometimes 20 mins apart) yet those mobs had the same drops. There is some minor variance in chalks but the grapes, golds and greens are the same...and they're the goodies we're hunting. It's easy to deduce that a particular beastie is assigned a specific drop at creation of the instance, therefore it shouldn't matter when you kill it, the drop is the same.

The difference between that thread and the conspiracy theories is there is hard evidence to support it and others have replicated the results. That holds a lot more water than guesswork tainted by subjective bias that is ultimately unprovable. There's a big difference between 'thinking' and 'knowing' and that thread tests and dispells more theories than it supports. Read it, it's well worth it.

strcpy · Dec 15, 2007, 07:48 AM // 07:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antithesis

The difference between that thread and the conspiracy theories is there is hard evidence to support it and others have replicated the results. That holds a lot more water than guesswork tainted by subjective bias that is ultimately unprovable. There's a big difference between 'thinking' and 'knowing' and that thread tests and dispells more theories than it supports. Read it, it's well worth it.

Yes, though at this point we do have something of an issue. As far as I know there has been a large amount of data done about drops with SoJ vs SV and it very strongly supports that kill rate effects it (in fact, as far as I can tell it was nearly 100% in that fashion). Yet, if that thread is true then the other is wrong - given that it has pretty much moved into the "confirmed" phase we have something of a problem.

We have two competing mutually exclusive theories that are pretty much shown to be correct

I guess, I want more data. From the thread quoted I didn't notice any "trusted source" having confirmed, mostly just someone like me (and I may very well have missed it). That's not to say they are automatically liars, just that me telling people something that is to be trusted based only my word shouldn't immediately override fairly large amounts of data. However, the data to show drop rates was not done in such a way to guarantee correct results - so it also has its flaws and could very well be subject to a case of sample bias. At this point I'm more inclined to believe the quoted thread simply because the people posting it have no real reason to lie and have been around long enough that I do no think they would post it as a "scam" (that is, they are similar to me - not well known by any means but using an old enough account that one wouldn't generally wanted to be known as a liar).

In any event, there is nothing more than "feelings" associated with nothing dropping in the first few minutes or the first few kills, in fact there isn't a single shred of evidence to say otherwise and tons to say otherwise. In other words - no, don't listen to that person.

Guildmaster Cain · Dec 15, 2007, 12:03 PM // 12:03

Seriously... people that claim better drops if you wait longer, after they tried it 2 times in a row, should really start opening some books on statistics.
You can not base any judgement on 2 runs, not with the randomization of GW drops.

The following runs were done with a sliver ele/assasin, killing the whole cave, save for some that were too far to aggro sometimes (over 30 kills each time including boss). The runs each took less then 1 minute.

Runs (based on Sliver killing 30+ foes and boss, trash not included):
1: 1 Rare + 3 Sparkler
2: 1 Rare Scroll + 3 Sparklers + 3 Ale + 2 Honeycomb
3: 3 Honeycomb + 1 Ale + 2 Sparkler
4: 1 Rare + 1 Honeycomb + 1 Sparkler
5: 2 Ale + 2 Sparkler + 1 Honeycomb
6: 3 Rare + 2 Honeycomb + 1 Sparkler
7: 4 Ale + 2 Sparkler
8: Claws of the Broodmother + 6 Sparkler + 3 Ale + Orange Dye
9: 1 Rare + 2 Assasin Tome + 4 Honeycomb + 1 Sparkler + 1 Ale + Purple Dye
10: Claws of the Broodmother + 2 Ale + 1 Sparkler + 1 Honeycomb + Silver Dye
11: 6 Sparkler + 1 Honeycomb + 1 Ale
12: 1 Sparkler + 1 Honeycomb
13: 2 Ale + 1 Honeycomb + 1 Sparkler
14: 1 Rare + 4 Ale + 2 Honeycomb + 1 Sparkler
15: 1 Rare + 3 Sparkler + 3 Honecomb
16: 4 Honeycomb + 2 Sparkler + Orange Dye
17: Claws of the Broodmother + 2 Rare + 6 Sparklers + Silver Dye + Purple Dye
18: 1 Rare Scroll + 1 Lockpick + 2 Sparkler + 2 Ale + 2 Honeycomb
19: 2 Ale + 2 Honeycomb + 2 Sparkler
20: Claws of the Broodmother + 2 Assasin Tome + 1 Ale + 1 Sparkler
21: 1 Lockpick + 2 Honeycomb + 1 Sparkler
22: 3 Sparkler + 3 Ale + 2 Honeycomb
23: 1 Rare + 1 Assasin Tome + 4 Sparkler + 2 Ale + 1 Honeycomb
23: 1 Rare + 2 Ale + 1 Sparkler + 1 Honeycomb
24: 1 Rare + 3 Honeycomb + 2 Sparkler + 1 Ale
25: 3 Ale + 2 Sparkler + 2 Honeycomb

Total:
Rare: 13
Rare scroll: 2
Claws of the Broodmother: 4
Lockpick: 2
Ale: 39
Sparkler: 60
Honeycomb: 40
Assasin Tome: 5
Dye: 6

Also noted that 25 runs isnt enough to make a real statistical analysis, but the result has a much higher level of significance. As you can see, about 25% of the runs were totally crap (only holiday items). And the other runs were ok, with 25% being very good drops (more then 1 rare etc).
If you only do 2 runs with waiting at the start before aggroing, there is a reasonable chance you get the good drops, but you might as well get the bad drops.

Go ahead, do 25 runs with the same boundry conditions plus waiting 10 mins before aggroing. I know I wont waste my time on it. Because in the same time, I can do 10 runs and even if it is true what your knowledgable friend said, I will get more stuff from my 10 runs with crap drops then your friend will in his 10 minute run.